Nearly 500,000 children could die from AIDS-related causes by 2030 without stable PEPFAR programmes, Oxford experts estimate  

Published on April 8, 2025

Experts including Prof Lucie Cluver, Professor of Child and Family Social Work, Department of Social Policy and Intervention, and Dr Seth Flaxman, Associate Professor, Department of Computer Science assessed the potential impacts on HIV/AIDS treatment and prevention efforts in sub-Saharan Africa if the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) is suspended or only receives limited, short-term funding. They estimate that 1 million additional children could become infected with HIV and nearly 500,000 children could die from AIDS by 2030, while as many as 2.8 million children could become orphaned in the next five years if PEPFAR programmes are reduced or eliminated.